中国货币政策利率传导效率研究:2008-2017

随着利率市场化进程的不断推进以及商业银行利率定价机制的发展,中国货币政策利率的传导效率也不断提高。基于2008年1月-2017年6月的宏观时间序列数据和微观调研数据,本文检验了中国货币政策利率对银行贷款利率的传导效率。总体而言,基准利率是影响金融机构贷款加权平均利率的主要因素。分时间段看,贷款利率浮动限制放开之后,货币市场利率对金融机构贷款利率的传导效率显著提升;基准利率对金融机构贷款利率的影响略有下降,但仍然占主导。对商业银行贷款利率定价的微观机制进行探讨后,本文发现贷款利率定价机制的变化是中国利率传导效率出现变化的主要原因。进一步的分析表明,资金来源和市场利率波动均是影响货币市场利率传导效率的重要因素。最后,本文就如何提高货币政策利率传导效率提出了政策建议。本文研究对完善价格型货币政策体系以及中国货币政策框架转型具有重要的实践意义。     

Demystifying residents' walking behaviors: Active transport in South East Queensland,Australia

This study investigates the correlates of a resident's walking behaviors and aims to shed light on mechanisms through which walking may be encouraged. The results of this investigation paint a complex and nuanced picture of the residents’ walking behaviors in South East Queensland, Australia. The results suggest that sociodemographic characteristics separately may contribute greatly to whether or not one engages in walking behaviors. Further, cumulatively these differences might be greater for some groups of residents compared to others. One of the most prominent findings of the study is that the purpose, the characteristics of the origin, and the characteristics of the destination of a trip tended to be similar in the heterogeneity they exhibit over the distribution of time spent walking. For example, pick something up, undertake work, or engage in personal business, move to or from a workplace, shop, or social place are activities that tend to be associated with walking as a main mode of transport and a higher number of walking episodes. However, these trips tended to be short.     

基于新知识生产函数的青海高新技术企业创新驱动力研究

基于新经济增长模型,通过岭回归实证检验,分析了青海省高新技术企业创新产出的影响因素。实证结果显示企业内部研发投入和人力资本对创新产出有积极作用,集聚知识溢出水平对创新产出的贡献较大,政府支持力度对创新产出的作用不稳定。最后,结合高新技术企业调研现状和实证结果提出了高新技术企业提高创新产出的对策建议。     

Domestic political connections and international expansion: It's not only ‘who you know’ that matters

Former politicians on the board of directors bring to the firm domestic political connections and political knowledge. Previous research has mainly highlighted the role of contacts, without fully recognizing the role of political knowledge accumulated at home. By focusing on the effect of domestic political connections on foreign direct investment, we show that domestic political knowledge also shapes foreign expansion. We argue that contacts provided by former politicians may not be useful for foreign expansion whilst their political knowledge can be of help in countries with discretionary governments and with similar institutional environments to the one of the home country.     

城市土地利用与交通相互作用（LUTI）研究进展与展望

研究目的:基于对国内外大量研究成果的梳理,对城市土地利用与交通相互作用(LUTI)的复杂机理展开系统回顾与述评,并尝试提出未来亟需重点关注的研究领域与方向。研究方法:文献资料法,对比分析法。研究结果:国内外实证研究领域及空间尺度表现出明显分异,部分研究结果亦呈现出差异化特征;国外热衷于引入多学科理论与方法构建LUTI一体化模型,而国内所引入的数学规划模型多停滞在理论分析与模拟层面,应用性相对有限,但近年来国内学者逐渐加强LUTI协调性评价,研究领域呈现出新特征。研究结论:全球可持续发展背景下,LUTI研究为实现城市土地利用与交通的协调发展提供了良好基础,未来应加强对LUTI模型方法与互馈机理的研究,并深入探讨现代交通发展对土地利用的影响机制,环境、社会因素亦应引起重视,国内学界则应注重本土性与应用性研究。     

跨境电商对华商网络贸易的效应分析

在就跨境电商对华商网络贸易所具有的替代效应与互补效应进行理论分析的基础上，利用古诺模型分析市场均衡的结果及贸易效应，采用面板数据实证检验跨境电商对华商网络贸易的影响，结果表明跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应大于替代效应：一方面，由于华商网络对出口贸易的影响尤为显著，而跨境电商平台又以出口贸易为主，从而跨境电商对华商网络出口贸易的影响较大；另一方面，跨境电商平台偏向于差异化产品贸易，因而跨境电商对差异化产品的华商网络贸易有着较大影响。也就是说，跨境电商对华商网络贸易的互补效应在出口贸易与差异化产品贸易上表现得尤为显著。     

Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Mandatory disclosure,greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of equity capital: UK evidence of a U-shaped relationship

This paper examines the effects of disclosing greenhouse gas (GHG) information mandatorily on the cost of equity capital (COC) using a longitudinal unbalanced panel database of the United Kingdom's FTSE 350 firms for the period 2011–2016. We use a nonlinear panel quantile regression (PQR) model to examine the relationship between GHG disclosure (GHGD) and COC in the United Kingdom. This technique was supplemented by conducting a two-step generalised method of moment (GMM) estimation to address any concerns related to the potential existence of endogeneity problems. Our findings suggest that high-level GHGD appeared to be negatively associated with COC up to a certain level, which is known as the turning point; then, any increase in GHGD is likely to increase the COC. This means that the nonlinear association between GHGD and COC is evidenced in our study and takes a U shape. Likewise, our findings are associative of a moderating effect of the 2013 carbon disclosure regulation (CDR) on the GHGD–COC nexus. We argue that mandatory GHGD and GHG risk are linked so that those companies that are associated with higher GHG risk have a tendency to be better disclosers. Consequently, we urge regulators to design GHGD regulations in a way that mirrors corporate environmental risk and leads to a lower COC in order to align the interests of corporations with those of the society at large.     

资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

中国集体林产权制度改革回顾与展望

采用历史产权制度研究方法,利用详实的历史数据与信息,系统地分析改革开放以来中国集体林产权制度改革每个重要时期的改革内容与进程以及集体林地林木流转制度演化历程,发现改革开放四十年中国集体林所有权和家庭经营的基因没有变,变的是集体林地承包经营权的实现形式;指出集体林产权制度变迁道路中的困惑;提出未来集体林产权制度的选择路径。